Jose's Cerebro

Australian scientist changes his mind on global warming

As most of you know, I don't believe Al Gore nor in his "Inconvenient Truth".  His argument to make us believe that we - humans - are responsible for global warming is weak and full of fallacies.  Moreover, I really can't respect a man that's willing to make such allegations and not make himself available for an open, public debate on the matter.  Sigh.

Despite of all the global warming disinformation going on, there are a few souls that are willing to put their neck on the line on our behalf.  Take for example Dr. Davis Evans and his confession on The Australian newspaper:

"I DEVOTED six years to carbon accounting, building models for the Australian Greenhouse Office. I am the rocket scientist who wrote the carbon accounting model (FullCAM) that measures Australia's compliance with the Kyoto Protocol, in the land use change and forestry sector.

FullCAM models carbon flows in plants, mulch, debris, soils and agricultural products, using inputs such as climate data, plant physiology and satellite data. I've been following the global warming debate closely for years.

When I started that job in 1999 the evidence that carbon emissions caused global warming seemed pretty good: CO2 is a greenhouse gas, the old ice core data, no other suspects.

The evidence was not conclusive, but why wait until we were certain when it appeared we needed to act quickly? Soon government and the scientific community were working together and lots of science research jobs were created. We scientists had political support, the ear of government, big budgets, and we felt fairly important and useful (well, I did anyway). It was great. We were working to save the planet.

But since 1999 new evidence has seriously weakened the case that carbon emissions are the main cause of global warming, and by 2007 the evidence was pretty conclusive that carbon played only a minor role and was not the main cause of the recent global warming. As Lord Keynes famously said, "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?""

Dr. Evans proceeds by giving a primer on the facts about global warming and the reason for his change in mind.  A must read for those interested in the topic and those that want to stop the current biofuel's based genocide.

My research and how-to work on Nokia's Nseries Workshop

I've been writing a series of posts for Nokia's Nseries Workshop based on my research.  The rest are mainly how-to's - for those newbies that want to do more with their mobiles than make calls and send text messages - and coverage of current events in the mobile world.

Here's a list of the last 20 articles I've written:

How to use Mobile Web Server: Part 3

How to use Mobile Web Server: Part 2

How to use Mobile Web Server: Part 1

Maps On Ovi at Where 2.0

Internet Tablet Video Converter

How to use Skype Mobile Beta on your N95

The noBounds Project

Q&A with David Wood, EVP Research, Symbian

Silverlight News from MIX '08

How to send SMS from OS X with AT commands and Ruby

How to send SMS and make calls from OS X with AT commands

How to geotag your photos with Location Tagger

How to transfer your iTunes library to your Nseries device

New Nseries devices debut at MWC 2008

How to sync your Nseries device with Mac OS X

Stream videos online with Qik

How to flash an N800 image from OS X

How to run Ruby on your N800/N810

How to set up multiple email accounts on your Nseries device

How to use your N95 as an external GPS device

How to glog and more with WayMarkr

Mercurio 2.1 - aka "Poor Man's SMS Gateway"

After last week's update I realized that Mercurio's dependency on UltraSMS was unnecessary. Originally, Mercurio used UltraSMS to send and the mercurio.py script to receive. UltraSMS can send and receive, but it has issues with certain characters when receiving, so I recommend it only for sending. Additionally, UltraSMS hasn't been updated in quite a while. In Mercurio 2.1, a ruby script I wrote replaces UltraSMS for sending. So basically, Mercurio now uses mercurio.py to receive and Mercurio Web - via this new ruby script to communicate via bluetooth - it's possible to use a wire too - to send. 

 

Past: 

Mercurio Web -> UltraSMS -> SonyEricsson phone -> send 

Present: 

Mercurio Web with new ruby script -> S60 Nokia phone (perhaps the same phone running mercurio.py) -> send 

The way this works is by embedding a script into Mercurio Web - in the /lib directory - that opens a bluetooth connection to the phone and sends it commands to send any messages that come via the web interface - check mercurio2.heroku.com/outboxes for an example of the UI. The outgoing messages get automatically saved in the database, but not in the phone. You may want to check the outboxes_controller.rb file to see how SendSMS.rb is used. 

If you want to try the new functionality with your computer, you'll need to have your paired phone set up with a serial interface via System Preferences -> Bluetooth -> Your phone -> Edit Serial ports. Take a look at the SendSMS.rb file to see my settings or you can read this other post I wrote in Nokia's Nseries Workshop on how to do just that. 

Changes in Mercurio 2.1: 

Tosses UltraSMS - uses the new SendSMS functionality with ruby-serialport. 

No need for a Sony Ericsson phone, the same S60 phone used with Mercurio S60 can also send. 

Uses SQLite as the database repository - you can use MySQL if you like. 

Runs equally on Macs and Linux. Supersedes Mercurio 2.0. Small UI changes. 

Download from here or my Nokia MOSH collection.

New version of Mercurio - aka "Poor Man's SMS Gateway" is out

Update: Mercurio 2.1 is now available - read post here.

Last weekend I received an email from Michael Roterman about the status of Mercurio. A few days earlier I wanted to update Mercurio anyway so it could be used in Myanmar. I'm happy to say that the project has been updated.

Changes:
It is now fully compatible with the latest Python S60 version 1.4.3.
It supports foreign characters for incoming messages.
Incoming messages are now deleted automatically from the phone to prevent the memory from getting full.
Mercurio S60 comes configured to send test messages to a running version of Mercurio Web on mercurio2.heroku.com.

You can download it here.

Please let me know if you have any questions or how you're using Mercurio so I may highlight it in the blog.

How does Apple "beat" everyone else? - Attention to detail

As a designer I've been witnessing how Apple has been kicking its competitor's asses via design. I've been using their products as well as their competitor's and now I think I'm pretty sure I've nailed down what Apple does, that no one else seems to understand/do - Great Design is only achieved when one pays really, really good... ATTENTION TO DETAIL. Let me show you what I'm talking about:

This is a little shortcut - I read about it in MacFormat - that let's British iPhone users easily type in ".co.uk" - instead of just ".com" as most US based sites - in the URLs. It works based on your language/keyboard settings. Not a big deal, right? Try writing a URL in any other phone/browser and you'll notice the difference.

And some "experts" wonder why iPhone data consumption is higher with it than with any other similar or more "feature rich" phone!

Skip the iPhone SDK and give me 3G

The latest attempt to sacrifice Steve Jobs and Co. seems to be the "apparent" lack of a native SDK. What a crock of shit. Call me crazy, but I don't really want or need a native iPhone SDK. That's right, no stinking SDK.

Don't give in Steve Jobs, don't give in.

What I really want is a few more "web hooks" to local data and hardware via a sandbox - Javascript would do - and a real 3G data connection.

You see, I come from an old school systems design philosophy - build and design not for the world you're in, but for the world you will be in. And from where I'm standing the mobile world we'll all be in is inundated with bandwidth and data everywhere. You heard me right - death, taxes and an always-on data connection. In fact, I see so much connectivity that if I was designing a phone today it would just be a terminal - no native OS or apps. Everything, including the UI, would "stream" from the server. In such a world, the data pipe is the hardware bus and applications are never installed, they're all there.

It's this pre-conceived notion that makes be believe that a native iPhone SDK is a waste of time, a security risk or just plainly... as archaic of an idea as the floppy drive - which Apple removed with similar criticism. Don't give in Steve Jobs, don't give in.

Apple: We still like Flash! Releases My iTunes Widgets

Is the iPhone getting a Flash player?

iTunes is giving you an effortless way to keep your friends up-to-date with your favorite music, TV shows, movies, and more. My iTunes widgets are simple, self-updating add-ons for your web page, social-networking profile, or blog.

Check it out.

NASA: Data backing up Inconvenient Truth documentary was faked

Continuing the systemic thinking theme...

I've never seen a revolution that was overtly started from the top. That's why I've been so skeptical about Al Gore's Inconvenient Truth-backed environmental movement. Have you seen all the publicity that documentary has received? How about the Live Earth concerts? I'm sorry, I don't buy it. As much as I'd like to think that Gore and Co. care, I just can't hack it. Same goes for most of us Americans. I don't believe for a moment that all of a sudden we really truly care about the environment. If we - the most selfish nation on Earth - really cared, we'd be doing something about Darfur. Those people are dying today. We are too busy watching sports, American Idol, movies, working, shopping, dieting, and wondering what's going to happen with the recent collapse of the stock market to give a damn. Environment? Darfur? Please. Give me a break.

That's why when I read that Canadian Economist Steve McIntyre has exposed the fact that the global temperature data produced by James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, has been faked I'm not surprised. This is the same data that was used by Gore in Inconvinient Truth.

NASA is siliently trying to clean up its act and has re-released the correct data. This is not the first sign pointing to all the faults found in Gore's documentary. Maybe the only "Inconvenient Truth" Gore has to deal with now is how his climate-change based hedge fund Generation Investment Management is going to convince investors.

Don't believe the hype, question it!

What do you call the end of the subprime market and the end of the yen carry trade? WFC - Worldwide Financial Collapse

A hundred years from now, when my descendants decide find out what their ancestors were thinking while financial history was happening, I want them to read this post. This is a post for posterity.

I remember in college reading about the depression in 1929 and thinking... what the hell were those guys thinking? Here I am in 2007 and now that we're about to see the current world's financial system crumble, I can understand how events like the 1929 depression happen. In my opinion, it all comes down to psychology and a lack of systemic thinking in our population.

What's happening? Simple. You know about the subprime market collapse, right? But have you heard about the yen carry trade? Probably not. Here's the currency carry trade definition according to Investopedia:

A strategy in which an investor sells a certain currency with a relatively low interest rate and uses the funds to purchase a different currency yielding a higher interest rate. A trader using this strategy attempts to capture the difference between the rates - which can often be substantial, depending on the amount of leverage the investor chooses to use. Here's an example of a "yen carry trade": let's say a trader borrows 1,000 yen from a Japanese bank, converts the funds into U.S. dollars and buys a bond for the equivalent amount. Let's assume that the bond pays 4.5% and the Japanese interest rate is set at 0%. The trader stands to make a profit of 4.5% (4.5% - 0%), as long as the exchange rate between the countries does not change. Many professional traders use this trade because the gains can become very large when leverage is taken into consideration. If the trader in our example uses a common leverage factor of 10:1, then she can stand to make a profit of 45%.

The big risk in a carry trade is the uncertainty of exchange rates. Using the example above, if the U.S. dollar were to fall in value relative to the Japanese yen, then the trader would run the risk of losing money. Also, these transactions are generally done with a lot of leverage, so a small movement in exchange rates can result in huge losses unless hedged appropriately.

When you read the Wall St. Journal and the other financial publications they blame the current financial irregularities and inflation on the Chinese and yuan. What a crock of shit.

The carry trade is a near limitless cash machine for banks and hedge funds. They can borrow at near zero interest rates in Japan -0.5%- to relend anywhere in the world that offers higher yields, whether Argentine notes or US mortgage securities. Yen carry trade fingerprints are found on just about every financial instrument today - credit spreads, bond spreads, you name it. In my opinion, all bubbles need a source. In this case, the Bank of Japan has been one of the main sources.

So what's the problem? Well, remember the aforementioned explanation of currency carry trade and the risk behind it? Yeah? The rise in the value of the yen with respect to most other currencies is effectively increasing the interest rate to the point that this source of cheap liquidity is drying up. Basically, what's happening is that people can't afford to pay the high-interest rate mortgages they were suckered into, and the speculators can't get access to easy money to cover their losses. The yen is rising. Speculators, running like chickens with their heads cut off, caught with losses on the sub-prime market and in the hedge funds, are scrambling to cash in their bets made with borrowed yen, buying yen to pay back their yen loans. This is causing the yen to go higher and generating further losses to previous yen borrowers. Do you see a cycle here?

Countries are about to go bankrupt and a new financial system will have to emerge. Time will be the judge.

Forrester: The end of the mobile Web as we know it

A new analyst report by Forrester named: "The Mobile Web Versus The Web On An iPhone: iPhone Wins In A Blowout" signals changes on what we perceive to be the "mobile web."

Forrester evaluated the iPhone's capabilities, and we believe that the iPhone signals the beginning of the end for the mobile Web as we know it today: Stripped-down sites crammed onto the small screens of devices meant for phoning, not browsing, will become a thing of the past. Companies looking to stay on top of this trend should get iPhones and experience their capabilities for themselves. Going forward, firms should continue to experiment with the mobile Web sites they own today in order to learn how to create content that is timely, location-aware, and actionable for users on the go.

What do you think?